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Statistical distributions
Lesson 54 of 75
Challenge

Binomial probabilities

Objective. Calculate point, cumulative and tail probabilities.

  1. 1. Learn
  2. 2. Worked example
  3. 3. Practice
  4. 4. Feedback
  5. 5. Continue

Learn: the key idea

Binomial probabilities for X~B(n,p) can be found using the formula P(X=r)=ⁿCᵣpʳ(1−p)ⁿ⁻ʳ for a single value, or cumulative tables/calculator functions for P(X≤r) and tail probabilities like P(X>r)=1−P(X≤r). For example, with X~B(5,0.3), P(X=2)=⁵C₂(0.3)²(0.7)³. Cumulative probabilities are useful for ranges, since P(X≥r)=1−P(X≤r−1), avoiding the need to sum many individual terms by hand. Always identify whether the question wants exactly r, at most r, or at least r before calculating.

Worked example

X~B(6,0.4). Find the binomial probability P(X=2) exactly.

6 … 0.4
Illustrated card showing 6 … 0.4
  1. 1Use P(X=r)=ⁿCᵣpʳ(1−p)ⁿ⁻ʳ
  2. 2P(X=2)=⁶C₂(0.4)²(0.6)⁴
  3. 3⁶C₂=15, so 15×0.16×0.1296
  4. 4P(X=2)=0.31104

Answer: 0.31104

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Common mistake. Students compute P(X≥r) as 1−P(X≤r) instead of 1−P(X≤r−1), wrongly excluding the value r itself. Always adjust the boundary by one when switching from ≥ to the complement of ≤.

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