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Statistical foundations
Lesson 43 of 75
Standard practice

Confidence intervals

Objective. Construct and interpret confidence intervals.

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  2. 2. Worked example
  3. 3. Practice
  4. 4. Feedback
  5. 5. Continue

Learn: the key idea

A confidence interval is a range of plausible values for an unknown population parameter, constructed so that, across many repeated samples, a specified proportion (the confidence level) of such intervals would contain the true parameter. For a population mean with known standard deviation σ, a (1 − α)100% confidence interval is x̄ ± z_(α/2)(σ/√n), where z_(α/2) is the critical value from the standard normal distribution. Increasing the confidence level widens the interval, since greater certainty requires a broader range, while increasing sample size n narrows it by reducing the standard error. For a sample mean of 50 with σ = 10 and n = 25, a 95% confidence interval is 50 ± 1.96(10/√25), giving roughly 46.08 to 53.92.

Worked example

A sample of n = 36 has mean 20 and known standard deviation σ = 6. Construct the 95% confidence interval for the population mean.

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Bar chart of the values 36, 20, 6, 95
  1. 1Identify the critical value for 95% confidence: z_(0.025) = 1.96.
  2. 2Compute the standard error: σ/√n = 6/√36 = 1.
  3. 3Multiply to find the margin of error: 1.96 × 1 = 1.96.
  4. 4Form the interval as the sample mean plus or minus this margin: 20 ± 1.96.

Answer: (18.04, 21.96)

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Common mistake. Students interpret a 95% confidence interval as meaning there is a 95% probability the true parameter lies within this specific calculated interval; the correct interpretation refers to the long-run success rate of the method across repeated samples.

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